Episode 6 – ‘Can I make a living from Football Index?’ – Good start to the year?

“Weighing up risk can go against you on the Index when sometimes its best to just not think and keep it simple.”

Welcome to the sixth instalment of the ‘Can I make a living from Football Index’ series.

The last episode was a bit of a reflection from when I started back in September 2018 but we are now in 2020 (already!) so let’s look to plough on as much as possible and get the most out of this Football Index we all know and love.

Onwards and upwards as some bald bloke who sends out rockets on Twitter now and then once said. 😀

(If you somehow haven’t signed up to Football Index yet, you can do by clicking this link You won’t regret it!)

This January has seen not one offer come about, but two. They do love to give do FI, you can’t really knock it, can you? The first was a ‘£500 risk-free’ offer for all traders which is basically what they offer to all new customers for a week. The difference in this one is it is open for the whole of January.

When this first came out it seemed great. Risk-free trading? I’m in. But when you look through the T&C’s it shouldn’t really apply to traders of any experience, as it’s a payback of any losses over the month. I mean, if I am down come the end of January, this month’s episode will be diabolical reading!

What this did offer though was giving newer customers the freedom to go big. Ploughing everything into a potential transfer for e.g could be a nice way to go. With this in mind, when this offer came from nowhere my instincts were on one man and one man only. Bruno Fernandes.

Bruno

The Bruno saga

“…those who have sat on him this whole time have seen a great return.”

If you could trade on someone this month “risk-free” who would it be? This was the question I asked as a trader and that very morning there were very early whispers that Man Utd were looking into Bruno Fernandes again.

So, without really reading the new offer T&Cs I bought some. My average was £2.85 and just left it. Then others did the same. Then the rumours started to build and the lad took off.

In hindsight, I should have really ploughed him, like empty the bank stuff, but was a bit late and he was up to £3.50 before I could blink. I wasn’t complaining but you always want more in this game. 😀

Seeing as there wasn’t that much meat on the bone I sold a few off. But then he took off again. I bought and sold a few more during these waves but I kept 300 the whole time. Not a huge return as it stands but nothing to moan over.

bruno graph
Bruno’s graph for January – Boom time

This January offer came out on the 10th Jan, so this Bruno saga has been going on for three weeks now and looks to go on until the end of Jan as he flies in for his medical as I write, which has brought media dividends on almost a daily basis.

The only time he hasn’t won any media is when Rashford fractured his back and won two media divs back to back (pardon the pun). Bruno has brought in over 50p so far in media wins from the 11th Jan which isn’t gonna stop soon.

That’s incredible dominance. Shows what pull he may have as a Man Utd player. He still has the aftermath of the transfer, his debut and then stories on whether he was brilliant or awful.

So even throughout the dips and rises of his price, those who have sat on him this whole time have seen a great return. This is one of the beauties of the index, there are different ways to make your coin.

 

Transfer divs pointless?

The other offer FI introduced, bizarrely halfway through the transfer window, was pay-outs on completed transfers. These players must be worth over £1 and for perm transfers you get 10p and loans you get 5p. You must have owned at least the day before to get them.

At first, I liked this as it seemed to add another dimension to the usual pump a rumour and sell on the flip. However, in practice, I don’t think it has really worked. People don’t seem bothered about holding for transfers and those that do can be at the mercy of those selling by holding on to a player for the divs but has dropped in value.

Trans Div

Not so bad for anyone that would hold a new signing regardless but all this has done, for me, has added another dimension to flipping rather than substance to transfers. We have all seen those pumped to within an inch of £1 and then listed or dumped for fun.

Adding more madness to January has been an interesting move. I don’t think these will stick for future transfer windows. Not without slight changes anyway.

 

IPOs

“Can it be tedious? Hell yea”

January hasn’t just been about transfers but FI have gone IPO crazy and been pushing these out on a regular basis this month. For someone that loves IPO’s, I have been well happy with this. Nothing gets the heart racing like a player dropping and trying to maximise your potential profit. Whether you wanna flip or hold.

Some don’t like them, which is fair enough. I can see why as I have had my fair share of burns in my time playing with these fireworks. I have been left with players at a loss for ages that I don’t even want plenty of times and I will do again I’m sure. However, when it comes off its a brilliant way to make instant profits.

ipos jan

In my mind IPO stands for Instant Profit Opportunity so why wouldn’t I want to get involved in that? Can it be tedious? Hell yea. Can you question your life choices as you sit staring at a screen? Many times. Do you care about any of that once it lands and you get on at a good price? Hell no.

If you think IPOs can be rollercoaster rides than this month has been something else. On Xmas eve there was a technical issue which meant Rayan Cherki price stuff and was given away at a rock bottom price for people to hoover up in the thousands of shares. So, when the next batch came out it couldn’t happen again, could it?

 

IP-Oh what the fu….?

Remember the name, Japhet Tanganga. Not because he has done a Wayne Rooney and stuck one in the top corner but because he has done a ‘Rayan Cherki’ and got “stuck” on his IPO day. Some of us were waiting on him just in case it happened and my God it only went and did.

His price got stuck on and around the 85p mark and ppl ploughed in. You then had no access to the system but if you waited around and kept trying, it opened up again and had a free hit at him without his price moving an inch. I myself managed to get 5700 before he started to rise and then tried to breathe slowly to lower my heart rate! 😀

Then the question was when to list. I had scars from the Cherki situation where I gave away 80% of my shares bought for free as I didn’t realise what was going on quickly enough, so I was hesitant on listing too early amongst the frenzy.

To cut a long story short of a week’s worth of my all-time profit making jumps and falls like never before, I sit here with 3000 sold one way or another at all kinds of different prices with 2700 left in the sale queue.

Tang
How’s about that for a graph?

Who knows when these will go but if they do sell anywhere near his current price of £1.30 I will have made about £3k from all of this carry-on. This is one player I will never forget for a long time.

Today is the IPO of Jude Bellingham…well it was supposed to be. FI at this stage of writing have delayed/cancelled it for further notice given they didn’t think the system could handle it.

So, we could have had another Cherki/Tanganga situation and yet still get one if they release him and despite all their tests the system still can’t handle it and he gets stuck. I can only imagine the peak price of him if this were to happen. My God almighty.

People have asked why have they delayed it today and not made it clear they were going to do so last night or earlier this morning. I can’t say but they must have felt confident otherwise they wouldn’t be attempting it at all. Will watch this space on this one…

*Update: Bellingham is being released tomorrow! Hold on to your balls!*

 

The younger the better?

“…his 35-minute cameo was something to behold…”

With Cherki coming on the platform it has seemed to reignite people’s desire to get on youth holds, as the 16-year old had a barnstorming ’10 out of 10′ performance in the French Cup where he scored twice and grabbed two assists against decent opposition. Outrageous.

Cherki
10 out of 10

I myself was monitoring this game and grabbed 600 at £2.75 average and he reached £4 before Lyon’s league game in anticipation that he might have got a start. He didn’t and has dipped since but this kid could be an FI monster. Fingers crossed.

With the rise of Cherki, we have seen other youth players get some action like Ryan Gravenberch of Ajax. Harvey Elliot went up a bit. Barrenextea had some buys into him. It was basically anyone without a picture, fill your boots!

I made a bit of money on Gravenberch but Ander Barrenextea was one that intrigued me the most given his low price in comparison to the others and the fact he was in and around the first team at Real Sociedad already.

He grabbed a goal and an assist in the Spanish Cup so I grabbed 300. I wish I had grabbed more as others seemed to buy in dribs and drabs and before I knew it he had a decent rise.

After another goal in the cup, the recently turned 18-year old came on as a sub in the league and scored within a minute. It took a little delay for people to realise if he even was given the goal or not but when his PB score came in after his 35-minute cameo was something to behold…

Barren PB
Not bad for 35 mins!!

Once word got out he had thousands of buys and went up around 40p from his goal and settled around the £2.30 mark. I am on him after topping up at different times and a few sales at peak for 1000 and will continue to monitor closely. If he shows he has a strong PB base he could be special. A youth player with FI substance is what we all want. Right?

Another young player without a picture has been IPO’s this week in Sebastiano Esposito, so it would have been foolish of me not to get involved in this right? With Lautaro Martinez facing a 2-game ban after getting sent off for going mental last week, Esposito has a chance of some minutes. If he can do a Barrenextea I will be extremely happy!

 

Pick that out!

“Outrageous how the Matrix was seemingly built just for him.”

Apart from IPOs and transfers, I have made some normal trades as always with some cracking suggestions put out as well. I don’t give out “tips” that much these days but when I see a potential fixture buy I may ‘let the people know’.

The three I have put out lately were Riyad Mahrez, Jordan Henderson and Virgil Van Dijk:

Mahrez has won star man on a Silver Day and top forward on a Bronze night with some quality capital appreciation.

Henderson bagged a goal to help him win top Midfielder on a Bronze night and has gone up 25% in value.

Virgil went and won top Defender on a Gold day before he had even played the games I bought him for. Those “easy” games are yet to come after his rise in price and divs already won.

Lovely jubbly!

Some other players I am into at the minute that I have mentioned here and there on Indexgain mainly but maybe the odd excited tweet are:

Samu Castillejo who is showing some really strong stats that suit the PB matrix. He was under a £1 but has gone up a lot over past 24 hours after another impressive performance in the Italian Cup.

Maxwell Cornet was one I got on as soon as he grabbed an assist the other week as his PB was extremely strong. He put in another high-class FI performance past weekend so is one to watch if he can sustain it in Depay’s absence.

One to watch atm is Adam Ounas who put in a very impressive PB score for Nice in his last game and could be due a nice rise if he repeats it anytime soon. His age is still decent at 23 so could have all the cards in his favour.

All of the above sit within the £1 – £1.30 range so sit nicely in terms of value in the market if they prove to be solid PB players and are all 25 or under, so consistent scores will only bring good things.

alphonso
Topped him up!

I also wanna mention Alphonso Davies who is my muse right now. 19 years old and is absolutely smashing it for Bayern which is bringing consistent rock-solid PB scores without any bonuses in assists or goals.

The hope is he will be switched to a defender soon by Opta and that’s when he will really rocket! You can fully expect him to be £3+ with the chance of a clean sheet bonus to add to his PB game. Just wait til he grabs assists and the odd goal. Boom time baby!

Also want to mention the great man. The King. The cheat code. Neymar strolling his way to more Gold star man wins. Outrageous how the Matrix was seemingly built just for him. How many more star man’s will he win this season?

 

Numbers

FI have just released our all-time profit email which is nicely timed, so will work to that figure. January has been a unique month with transfers, IPOs and offers being released. However, I have missed out on lots of profit in some areas and gained in others like any other month.

Last time out I had an all-time profit of £35,930 and a month later this has moved onto £45,256. This means an increase of £9,326 for the past 30 days. An increase of around 26%.

jan ATP

My all-time dividends have gone up to £5,962.88 so slightly annoying as an update not quite getting over the £6k mark. 😀

This month has also seen me tick over a landmark of an ROI of 503% since the start of this season and when I started this blog.

I had £6,700 in the index on August 11th and turned it into £40,456 over the course of just over 24 weeks with no deposits. I have actually made £3,500 in withdrawals over this time.

For a broader outlook, I went back over my initial time on the index and have worked out that I committed £2,700 of my own money into FI over my first few weeks before any withdrawals and one-off temporary deposits for Deposit Bonuses etc.

So, based on this my overall ROI is 1574% as of the start of September 2018 to now.

 

Signing off

This month started extremely slow in terms of the all-time profit figure rising, as all profitable trades were offsetting drops on the players I was holding. It was only until this new “risk-free” offer kicking in on the 10th Jan where profits started to really kick on.

The Bruno trade was a good one, although I did not take advantage of it by any means. If I had to just left my 600 shares I bought I would have made a lot more money as of today. I just can’t help myself with these types of trades.

Weighing up risk can go against you on the Index when sometimes its best to just not think and keep it simple. Did I think Bruno was going? Yes. Would have I put money on it? Yes. So that’s all I needed to know.

Bruno Man U

Although I will say, this move looked very dodgy at one stage and the spread was eye-watering. If it had fallen through I wouldn’t want to be ISing on that!

IPOs have been decent and look like to be a regular thing given how many there have been lately. I welcome this with open arms. Others won’t for various reasons but we are all different with different lives on the Index.

It will be interesting to see the youth players and how much investment they will receive from now on. They have always been popular on some level but they could really get some serious money pumped into them.

PB players seem to have lost their appeal but like all trends, this may come back around at some point. Keep your eyes on that one.

Thanks for reading and follow me on Twitter @GingerPirlo_FI

Peace out!

(If you somehow haven’t signed up to Football Index yet, you can do by clicking this link You won’t regret it!)

Jose Mourinho is no longer The Special One. He is The Dull One

One thing that must be acknowledged is the Jose Mourinho we all knew and some fell in love with is gone.

The slick, arrogant, hungry young manager is long gone and is now a completely different animal. He is now a negative, dull, tired old shell of his former self.

The tipping point seems to be the Chelsea league win a few years ago. Even when he came back to Chelsea he looked tired and dull in his opening press conference.

He won the league in his 2nd season back so no one seemed to make much of this difference in persona. With this achievement, he seemed to be completely contempt and any remaining hunger left him completely.

An unbelievable relegation battle followed and inevitable sacking. He got the Man Utd job off reputation alone and in his first season finished outside the top 4.

This was covered up by the Europa League and League Cup triumphs which are not major trophies. Not in Man Utd’s world anyway.

He has been given an unreal amount of money to spend on players who at this stage have got his team results despite his overly negative and defensive tactics.

This Sevilla two-legged performances and results are showing his lack of quality as a manager. The 2nd leg last night was absolutely diabolical. Truly awful.

The team were suffocated through fear of losing an away goal. This comes from him. Nobody else. If you let the players go out by themselves, they would look to smash Sevilla.

To put this result into perspective, Leicester City beat this Sevilla team 2-0 this time last year to dump them out. This £400m Man Utd team never looked liked doing the same.

Being 2nd in the league this season is no achievement when you consider the money spent and being 16 points behind Man City without any realistic title challenge.

Jose Mourinho should be developing into a different type of manager at this stage. He is older but is he any wiser? Perhaps he is a different type of manager…an average one. A dull one.

So maybe that’s just it. The Special One has become The Dull One.

@ToonBano

 

Weird transfer XI – Some shockers in here!

There have been some weird transfers over the years. Some that just didn’t make sense at the time and seem even worse when you look back. Here are some that stick in my mind: 

GK: Edwin Van Der Sar – Juve to Fulham.

The whole thing was just weird. Clearly too good for them. Eventually made his move to Man U and won it all. What’s unreal is he was at Fulham for FOUR years. What a total waste of time.

RB: Mat Debuchy – Newcastle to Arsenal.

May not seem that weird but as a Newcastle fan, we couldn’t believe Arsene Wenger paid us twice as much as we did for him, to take him off our hands. He’s done nothing at Arsenal and none of us are surprised. Weird.

(I also have to mention Julian Faubert from West Ham to Real Madrid on loan. Very strange one)

CB: Laurent Blanc – Inter to Man Utd. 

Seriously this one was weird for the entire time he was there. He was clearly too old and contributed to Fergie’s worst ever season in the Premier League. So ridiculous.

CB: David Luiz – PSG to Chelsea.

This one was weird right? No-one could understand it. He then helped them win the league. So weird. He’s now not in the team. Not so weird.

LB: Mikael Silvestre – Man Utd to Arsenal.

I found this one just very strange. I couldn’t get my head around it. Fergie never sells to a rival, so he must have been past it, but he wasn’t that bad, which made it all just weird.

CM: Thomas Gravesen – Everton to Real Madrid.

Has there ever been a weirder permanent transfer? He actually played as well. Twilight zone.

CM: Edgar Davids – rocks up at Barnet.

This wasn’t a transfer and he was player-manager (kind of) but come on. Edgar Davids playing for Barnet? Weirdo.

CM: Ivan Campo – Real Madrid to Bolton.

I could have put Fernando Hierro in this team or even Djorkaeff but Campo was still in his prime and had only recently stopped polishing his Champions League medal. He would spend six years at Bolton. Six.

FW: Nicolas Anelka – Fenerbahce to Bolton.

PSG, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Man City, Fenerbahce, Bolton, Chelsea, wait what? If Anelka were to go for a job interview, he would need to explain the gap in his CV for that 2-year spell at Bolton Wanderers. How? Why?

FW: George Weah – Milan to Chelsea.

This was just weird. It’s like it never happened but it did and I for one can’t forget it. George Weah was a mirage, a mysterious idol to be watched only on Football Italia, winning World player of the year. Not struggling to play up front with Chris Sutton. No. No. No.

FW: Ian Rush & John Barnes – Leeds & Liverpool to Newcastle.

First off, these are two players so technically makes my XI a 12 man team. However, they came at the same time and given their ability at their respective ages, they just about make up one players worth.

As a Toon fan, I watched Kevin Keegan sign Ferdinand & Ginola in 1995 and almost won us the league. I then saw Kenny Dalglish sell them both in 1997 & replace them with over the hill Ian Rush & John Barnes. What? I know they say ‘sign what you know’ but this destroyed our team and put the club back for years. Perhaps forever. Why Kenny? Why? Utter nonsense.

Follow me on Twitter @ToonBano

Why does Mourinho have a Jedi-like mental hold over the media?

“The fact is Jose Mourinho is made of a shiny thick coat of Teflon when it comes to any possible criticism of his teams, his management or his comments.”

It is absolutely fascinating to witness the hacks in this country, as well Sky Sports and alike, that take pride in destroying anybody in football’s reputation or credibility whenever they see fit over the smallest of things, be totally uninterested in doing the same to Jose Mourinho.

Jose Mourinho has many gifts. A gifted manager, gifted coach, gifted translator…ahem. But perhaps his greatest gift is his Jedi-like mental hold over the media in this country.

They seem to be totally unaware that Jose can say any old nonsense and they soak it up like a sponge, no matter how ridiculous or untrue.

He once attacked Arsene Wenger by saying he is a specialist in failure when the Frenchman correctly called Jose up on supposedly conceding the Premier League title, well the special one is a specialist in evading failure that’s for sure.

Take Jose Mourinho’s latest media propaganda regarding Manchester United’s end to the season. He claims that Man Utd have too many games so he is sacrificing the Premier League to fully commit to the Europa League. This in itself deserves to be scrutinised by the media in this country as to how many games Man Utd actually have, with the quality of squad he has available.

A five-second Google search tells me that the only significant injured players Man Utd have had over the last few weeks are Zlatan Ibrahimovic & Marcos Rojo. That’s it. Luke Shaw & Darmian were out but were they first choice full-backs? Luke Shaw certainly isn’t.

“He had a good performance. He was in front of me and I was making every decision for him,” Mourinho said. This critique was so pre-calculated that it came with one of those sound bites that Mourinho is always able to reach for. “It was his body with my brain,” he said.

Jose Mourinho’s take on Luke Shaw’s performance versus Everton

Jose came out after another convincing away defeat at Spurs and claimed that Man Utd only have one game left to the season as they don’t need the Premier League games. Yet nothing is said from anyone about this ludicrous statement.

Let’s say the remaining games are pointless because Man Utd can’t finish in the top 4, who’s fault is that? What’s the reason that Man Utd can’t finish in the top 4? Is it not a disgrace that Manchester Utd spent over £150 million in the summer, to add to a squad that had spent over £130 million the season before, which added to an outlay of over £160 million to the season before that, has failed to finish in the Champions League spots? Where has this £450 million gone?!

Jose Mourinho has been telling everyone in every press conference or interview that he can’t play a certain team for a certain game because he doesn’t have the players. Let’s have another quick five-second google search and find out if he is telling the truth. Players that have been available to him for his favoured 4-3-3 formation:

GK – De Gea; Romero. RB – Valencia; Jones; Smalling; Young. CB – Bailly; Jones; Smalling; Blind. LB – Blind; Young. CM – Herrera; Fellaini; Pogba; Carrick; Mata; Rooney. Winger – Mkhitaryan; Lingard; Rashford; Martial. Striker – Rashford; Martial; Rooney. If a manager can’t pick a competitive team for a game every three or four days from that, then sack him.

The fact is Jose Mourinho is made of a shiny thick coat of Teflon when it comes to any possible criticism of his teams, his management or his comments. In spite of the fact that he is actually treating the media with complete contempt, as he knows full well they will report whatever he says and then discuss it like starving sheep that fall over themselves with any soundbite which they desperately crave.

How about you delve into or even dismiss what he is telling you and look at the facts. You might then get around to doing some journalism and calling out Jose for what he has been over the past two seasons, a failure.

Follow The Ginger Pirlo on Twitter @ToonBano